In the past 30 years, an estimated 1.3 million American women had breast cancers that were "overdiagnosed," which means their
screening-detected tumors would never have led to clinical symptoms, according to a
study published in the November 22 issue of the
New England Journal of Medicine.
In 2008 alone, breast cancer was overdiagnosed in an
estimated 70,000-plus women, which was 31% of all breast cancers
diagnosed
that year, assert the study authors, Archie Bleyer, MD, from
the Oregon Health and Science University in Portland, and H. Gilbert
Welch, MD, MPH, from the Geisel School of Medicine at
Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire.
Overall, about one third of all breast cancers detected in the United States are overdiagnosed, they say.
The authors point out that the advent of widespread
mammography screening in the United States led to a "substantial
increase"
in early-stage breast cancer, but only "marginally reduced"
the rate of advanced cancers detected. "The imbalance suggests
that there is substantial overdiagnosis."
However, breast screening expert Daniel B. Kopans, MD, from Harvard Medical School in Boston, Massachusetts, believes the
study is "outrageous" and "should have never passed peer review."
Mammography does not cause 'overdiagnosis'.
"The paper...is another in a long line of scientifically unsupportable attacks on mammography," he told
Medscape Medical News.
Dr. Kopans questioned the authors' methodology in his
critique of the study. He also dismissed one of its central findings
and ideas. "Mammography does not cause 'overdiagnosis',"
said Dr. Kopans. "Unfortunately, pathologists are not yet able to
distinguish cancers that will be lethal if left untreated
from those that do not need treatment."
First Prerequisite Not Met
In their study, Drs. Bleyer and Welch state that "effective"
cancer screening programs must increase the incidence of early
cancers detected and decrease the incidence of late cancers
detected. But mammography screening has not done the latter
substantially,
they say.
They used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)
data to examine trends in the incidence of early-stage breast
cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS] and localized
disease) and late-stage breast cancer (regional and distant disease)
in women 40 years and older from 1976 to 2008.
They found that the introduction of screening doubled the number of early breast cancers detected annually.
Specifically, the incidence jumped from 112 to 234 cases per 100,000 women — an absolute increase of 122 cases per 100,000
women over the study period.
At the same time, the rate at which women present with late-stage cancer decreased by only a small amount (8%), from 102 to
94 cases per 100,000 women — an absolute decrease of 8 cases per 100,000 women.
However, only 8 of the 122 additional early-stage cancers diagnosed were expected to progress to advanced disease, say Drs.
Bleyer and Welch, leaving a large imbalance between detected early-stage and late-stage cancers.
The data suggest that "mammography has largely not met the first prerequisite for screening to reduce cancer-specific mortality
— a reduction in the number of women who present with late-stage cancer," the authors state.
The findings suggest that "screening is having, at best, only a small effect on the rate of death from breast cancer," they
conclude.
Our study raises serious questions about the value of screening mammography.
"Our study raises serious questions about the value of screening mammography," say Drs. Bleyer and Welch. However, they note
that their study does not answer a common question that women ask: "Should I be screened for breast cancer?"
Dr. Kopans suggests that the study delivers the message that screening is not worthwhile. And he sees Dr. Welch as part of
a "small group of highly vocal individuals who have decided that they wish to end all screening for breast cancer."
"All responsible groups agree that mammography screening saves lives," said Dr. Kopans, referring to guidelines that recommend
screening from major groups such as the US Preventive Services Task Force and the American College of Physicians.
Assumptions Questioned
Drs. Bleyer and Welch chose the 3-year period from 1976 to
1978 to obtain their estimate of the baseline incidence of breast
cancer detected without mammography. "During this period,
the incidence of breast cancer was stable and few cases of DCIS
were detected," they write.
For each year after 1978, the authors calculated the absolute change in the incidence of early- and late-stage cancer relative
to the baseline incidence. They then summed the data across the 3 decades.
However, they had a challenge for the years 1990 to 2005,
during which many women used breast cancer-causing hormone replacement
therapy. To remove the excess breast cancer incidence from
that period, they "truncated" or lowered the incidence of the various
types of breast cancers.
They estimated the current incidence of breast cancer on the basis of the 3-year period from 2006 to 2008. This was deemed
a good time period because it is believed that the effect of hormone-replacement therapy ended at 2006.
Drs. Bleyer and Welch calculated 4 different estimates of
the excess detection or "overdiagnosis" of breast cancer for the
30-year period. The estimates varied with regard to the
"underlying incidence" of breast cancer, which is an estimate of the
number of cases that would be found without mammography
detection.
They calculated that the underlying incidence of breast
cancer was increasing by 0.25% with each passing year. They describe
this as a "best-guess" estimate, and used it as the basis
for their conclusion that 1.3 million women had
overdetected/overdiagnosed
breast cancer. They also had an "extreme-assumption"
estimate that assumed a 0.5% annual increase, resulting in an estimated
1.2 million overdiagnosed cases.
Dr. Kopans said that both of these estimates are too low. He explained that there has been an "underlying 1% per year increase
in breast cancer incidence...that has been going on since at least 1940."
He also criticized other elements of the calculations. "They
also underestimated the effects of lead time and ignored prevalence
screening, which adds to incidence every year as new women
begin screening. They also combined DCIS with early-invasive lesions
in an effort to dilute the results," he noted.
Drs. Bleyer and Welch anticipated most of these criticisms.
"There has been plenty of time for the surplus of diagnoses of early-stage cancer to translate into a reduction in diagnoses
of late-stage cancer — thus eliminating concern about lead time," they write.
They acknowledge that their best-guess estimate of the
frequency of overdiagnosis — 31% of all breast cancers — did not
distinguish
between DCIS and invasive breast cancer. However, they say
that invasive disease accounted for about half the overdiagnoses
in their estimates, and that about 20% of invasive breast
cancers were overdiagnosed. "These findings replicate those of other
studies," they write.
They state that reliable estimates of overdiagnosis would
"ideally" come from long-term follow-up after a randomized trial.
One such trial from Sweden with that long-term follow-up
supports these new findings, say the authors. "Among the 9 randomized
trials of mammography, the lone example of this is the
15-year follow-up after the end of the Malmö Trial, which showed that
about a quarter of mammographically detected cancers were
overdiagnosed," they write.
Treatment Deserves Credit Too
Over the study period, "the rate of death from breast cancer decreased considerably," they note, citing other research.
They also cite other research to assert that among women 40 years or older, deaths from breast cancer decreased from 71 to
51 deaths per 100,000 women — a 28% decrease.
But screening is not the sole reason for this drop in the death rate, Drs. Bleyer and Welch note.
"This reduction in mortality is probably due to some combination of the effects of screening mammography and better treatment,"
they write.
The math suggests that early detection from screening is not the biggest reason for the reduction in disease-specific death,
they say.
"Because the absolute reduction in deaths (20 deaths per
100,000 women) is larger than the absolute reduction in the number
of cases of late-stage cancer (8 cases per 100,000 women),
the contribution of early detection to decreasing numbers of deaths
must be small," they write, combining incidence data from
their study with those from a death rate study.
Better treatment for breast cancer lessens the need for screening, they suggest.
"Ironically, improvements in treatment tend to deteriorate
the benefit of screening. As treatment of clinically detected disease
(detected by means other than screening) improves, the
benefit of screening diminishes. For example, since pneumonia can be
treated successfully, no one would suggest that we screen
for pneumonia," they argue.
Dr. Kopans also addressed this issue, saying that "early
detection is the main reason that the death rate from breast cancer
has declined by over 30% since screening became widely
available." He noted that "therapy has improved, but therapy saves
lives when cancers are found earlier."
The authors have disclosed no relevant financial
relationships. Dr. Kopans reports receiving research support from GE
Healthcare.
N Engl J Med. 2012;367:1998-2005.
Abstract
Often patients will arrive with an outside biopsy. The biopsy should be processed for p16 testing and a reflex HPV test if p16+. There are no other molecular markers that are indicated for routine testing yet.
Director, Head and Neck Medical Oncology, Division of Hematology/Medical Oncology, Mount Sinai School of Medicine
Professor of Medicine, and Professor of Gene and Cell Medicine, The Tisch Cancer Institute
New York, NY
While surgery could be accomplished initially, it does not address the biology of this disease, which will require post-operative CRT and possesses a high risk of distant metastases. In addition, the functional consequences of the surgery would significantly reduce this patient's quality of life (NCCN, 2012).1
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